The yield on the Italian 10-year BTP rose back to around 4.2%, up from the over three-week low of 4.10% hit on August 24th, after the latest inflation data supported expectations that the ECB might not pause its tightening cycle soon. Figures released earlier today showed the Spanish inflation rate rose for 2nd month and inflation accelerated in four of six German states in August. Investors now await overall CPI figures from Germany and the Euro Area and US PCE price inflation and the non-farm payrolls report, which could shed light on the Fed's next moves. Both US Federal Reserve Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde asserted last week that the inflation target of 2% remains unchanged and is pivotal for future monetary policy decisions.
Historically, the Italy Government Bond 10Y reached an all time high of 14.20 in October of 1992. Italy Government Bond 10Y - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on August of 2023.
The Italy Government Bond 10Y is expected to trade at 4.36 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 4.79 in 12 months time.