The Russian ruble depreciated past 95.5 per USD, reapproaching the 17-month low of 100 touched on August 14th as capital controls and an emergency rate hike were not able to sustain the currency’s brief rebound. The currency is 31% down from this year’s high as the gradual opening of financial markets allowed firms and households to flee to foreign assets, magnifying the effect that significant trade imbalances have on the ruble. Stronger supply chains since the start of sanctions boosted imports, with June’s trade surplus sinking by 75% from the prior year and 53% from levels before the war. Additionally, the rapid deterioration of the Chinese economy hampered the outlook on import demand from Russia’s key trading partner, while the G7’s price ceiling on Russian oil drove Indian purchasers to grow wary of high import volumes. The developments offset reports that the Kremlin partook in informal agreements with executives to sell some export-denominated proceeds into rubles.
Historically, the Russian Ruble reached an all time high of 150 in March of 2022. Russian Ruble - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on August of 2023.
The Russian Ruble is expected to trade at 97.76 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 109.97 in 12 months time.