Steel rebar futures rose above the CNY 3,720 per tonne mark, approaching the three-week high of CNY 3,735 per tonne as markets continued to evaluate the possibility of production cuts mandated by China’s government amid the country’s reluctance to pass expansionary economic policy. Recent data further underscored the precarious conditions for steel-intensive constructors and the deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop for the world’s top consumer, with new yuan loans rising the least since 2009 and property prices continuing to deflate in July. Still, China’s Politburo has so far abstained from passing significant economic stimulus, backing bets that policymakers are purposely moving away from the current debt-intensive, construction-focused growth model. The lack of action raised bets of incoming mandates for steel-producing hubs to cut output in order to balance supply and demand dynamics, supporting the metal's price.
Historically, Steel reached an all time high of 6198 in May of 2021. Steel - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on August of 2023.
Steel is expected to trade at 3664.23 Yuan/MT by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 3519.02 in 12 months time.