The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note sank to the 4.1% mark on Wednesday, the lowest in three weeks and extending its decline from the 15-year high of 4.34% touched on August 21st as a batch of soft economic data strengthened bets that the Federal Reserve will refrain from raising interest rates further, supporting demand for bonds in the secondary market. The US GDP growth was revised lower to show 2.1% in the second quarter, while cooler-than-expected data from the ADP and the JOLTs suggested that higher interest rates are having a greater impact on the labor market. The results aligned with Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole statements that there is uncertainty on the duration of policy transmission lags, driving policymakers to heed overtightening risks. Still, Powell also stated that another rate hike could be warranted should above-trend growth patterns persist, after underscoring the priority to bring inflation down to the 2% level.
Historically, the United States Government Bond 10Y reached an all time high of 15.82 in September of 1981. United States Government Bond 10Y - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on August of 2023.
The United States Government Bond 10Y is expected to trade at 4.35 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 4.72 in 12 months time.