Newcastle coal futures went up to nearly $150 per tonne, the highest in almost three months driven by rising demand from China and an uptick in natural gas prices due to possible strikes at Australian LNG facilities. China's coal imports soared 67% yoy in July and are up 86% since the start of the year due to rising thermal power demand amid a shortage of hydropower generation. Nonetheless, it's worth noting that China's coal demand for the summer season appears to have reached its peak, as temperatures usually begin to decline from mid-August. Despite this, there is potential for increased demand from the industrial sector in the upcoming months, spurred by Beijing's commitment to implementing additional stimulus policies to support the economy. Meanwhile, China's average daily coal production declined to a nine-month low due to intensified safety inspections and temporary closures of coal mines following two fatal accidents in key coal hub Shanxi in July.
Historically, Coal reached an all time high of 457.80 in September of 2022. Coal - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on August of 2023.
Coal is expected to trade at 155.06 USD/MT by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 174.78 in 12 months time.